Eric Monnet y Damien Puy publicaron Has Globalization Really Increased Business Cycle Synchronization?, en cuyo abstract se lee: "This paper assesses
the strength of business cycle synchronization between 1950 and 2014 in a
sample of 21 countries using a new quarterly dataset based on IMF archival
data. Contrary to the common wisdom, we find that the globalization period is
not associated with more output synchronization at the global level. The world
business cycle was as strong during Bretton Woods (1950-1971) than during the
Globalization period (1984-2006). Although globalization did not affect the
average level of co-movement, trade and financial integration strongly affect
the way countries co-move with the rest of the world. We find that financial
integration de-synchronizes national outputs from the world cycle, although the
magnitude of this effect depends crucially on the type of shocks hitting the
world economy. This de-synchronizing effect has offset the synchronizing impact
of other forces, such as increased trade integration."
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