Alan M. Taylor publicó External Imbalances and Financial Crises, en cuyo resumen consigna: “In broad perspective, there have been essentially two competing views of
the global financial crisis, albeit there are some complementarities among
them. One view looks across the border: it mainly blames external imbalances,
the large-scale mix of unprecedented pattern current account deficits and
surpluses which entailed massive and growing net and gross international financial
flows in the last decade. The alternative view looks within the border: it
finds more fault in the domestic arena of the afflicted countries, attributing
the problems to financial systems where risks originated in excessive credit
booms in local banks. This paper uses the lens of macroeconomic and financial
history to confront these dueling hypotheses with evidence. Of the two, the
credit boom explanation stands out as the most plausible predictor of financial
crises since the dawn of modern finance capitalism in the late nineteenth
century. Historically, we find that global imbalances are not as important as a
factor in financial crises as is often perceived, and they have much less
correlation with subsequent episodes of financial distress compared to direct
indicators like credit drawn from the financial system itself.”
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